Saints may have better chances of success than odds indicate

If you’re a New Orleans Saints fan, the news wasn’t reassuring.

BetOnline released its odds of NFL teams making the playoffs this upcoming season, and the Black and Gold checked in at a 31.7% chance of making the postseason. Not good.

Several factors come into play for that calculation, including this: in 2023, the Saints played one of the NFL’s easiest schedules, akin to a layup, and still missed the postseason.

What’s even crazier is the Saints’ schedule in 2024 doesn’t look all that imposing either. They only play 8 games against teams that made the playoffs last season, and two of those are against Tampa Bay, a club expected to regress in 2024. Yet, the Saints are not picked to make the playoffs.

Even the Bears, starting a rookie quarterback (presumably), have a 56.5% chance of reaching the postseason.

Of the six teams in the NFC with worse odds of making the playoffs, two will likely start rookies at quarterback, two — Seattle and the New York Giants — have questions at quarterback, and one team, the Carolina Panthers, appears to be just plain terrible.

The Panthers and New England Patriots each have a 94.1% chance of MISSING the playoffs.

What’s also stunning about the Saints’ playoff odds is this: in the latter quarter of the 2023 season, Saints quarterback Derek Carr was quite good.

Yep, quite good.

In the last four games, three of them Saints wins, Carr threw 12 touchdown passes, with only 1 interception.

That isn’t an opinion. That’s a fact.

In the final four games, Carr completed 96 of 128 throws, a completion percentage of 75%. Those are numbers that Drew Brees would have taken in a heartbeat.

So, is the Saints’ roster that bad?

It appears that New Orleans picked up a pair of starters in the first two rounds of the draft, and it seems that the Saints had one of the better, if not the best, drafts in the NFC South.

The club also figures to be busy in the next wave of veteran free agency. Last week, head coach Dennis Allen said that there were still many quality veteran free agents who were unemployed.

About that schedule: Kansas City and Philadelphia will be very tough games, and Dallas and Green Bay are expected to be tough as well. However, the Saints gifted the Packers a victory in September, squandering a 17-0 lead.

If the Saints turn out to be as bad as the oddsmakers say, it’s going to be a long, tough year in New Orleans. It’s way too early to prognosticate that, though.

Remember, as everyone promotes the Falcons, their quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear. Tampa is nothing special, and Carolina is bad.

So, in Saints land, especially in early May, all is not lost.