Inside the numbers and the current state of the Saints

Statistics are always interesting. Sometimes, they are revealing. On other occasions, they are very revealing.

Then, there are the times when they simply do not tell the truth. A good case study is the performance of the New Orleans Saints over the last two weeks.

In a 34-0 demolition of New England, the numbers were certainly interesting. Without studying statistics, the clear impression would have been the Saints amassing significant yardage on offense.

The truth was that New Orleans did not post overly impressive numbers, posting a modest 304 yards of offense. The Saints came up with three turnovers, including a pick-six by Tyrann Mathieu.

In the 20-13 loss at Houston, without studying statistics, the clear impression would have been the Saints struggling to get anything going on offense.

That was also a false pretense. The Saints put up 430 yards of offense, including 341 yards passing.

One truism is turnovers, as detailed in a story last week.

Winning the turnover battle is perhaps the best revealing statistic pertaining to winning of any other.

The Saints lost the turnover battle Sunday and lost the game. Of course, the two turnovers were unusual. One came of a turnover when Zack Baun intercepted C.J. Stroud before fumbling it away on his return. The other came on the final offensive play of the game when Derek Carr lofted a prayer toward the end-zone and it was picked off.

Regardless of how, when or why they happen, turnovers are turnovers. Giveaways will turn you over from winning to losing.

Analyzing the offensive failures of the Saints, the primary culprit is a below average offensive line.

The naked eye tells us this, as does video review following games.

The grades assigned by Pro Football Focus give us a stronger indication of this fact.

It is truly amazing to see the disappointing play of this unit, considering the vast investment made by the organization in that aspect of the team.

Andrus Peat, hurt again, was active and did not play Sunday. He was a first-round pick whom the Saints doubled down on with a 5-year contract extension in 2020, clearly a poor decision in retrospect.

Cesar Ruiz was a first-round pick of the Saints in 2020. Despite some improvement in 2022, he has not played to the anticipated level of the investment, to date. Speaking of investments, the Saints doubled down on Ruiz, signing him to a four-year, $44 million deal last month.

Erik McCoy was a second-round pick of the Saints, 48th overall, in 2019. The Saints doubled down on McCoy, signing him to a five-year, $63.75 million contract extension in 2022. A solid player but not a star, time will tell if that was a sound investment.

Ryan Ramczyk was a first-round pick of the Saints in 2017. Ramczyk was a good investment, a brilliant player for the first four years of his career, earning All-Pro honors three times. In 2021, the Saints signed Ramczyk to a five-year, $96 million extension. Most recently, Ramczyk has not played to the high level displayed in those first few seasons with nagging injuries contributing heavily to a perceived decline.

Trevor Penning was a first-round pick of the Saints in 2022. Penning missed virtually all his rookie season and, by all accounts, has performed poor this season. That was evident Sunday when Dennis Allen benched Penning, moving Hurst to left tackle and electing to start Max Garcia at left guard, instead. Penning had to enter the game when Hurst was injured and struggled once again, particularly in pass protection.

James Hurst was not a first-round pick. He came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent and earned his way into the league, now in his tenth season. Hurst has been a serviceable player, by no means a standout. He signed a three-year, $9 million contract extension with the Saints in 2021.

The numbers are clear. The Saints have more capital invested in their offensive line than in any other aspect of their team.

The statistics and actual performance are also clear. The initial choices made by the organization have not worked out in satisfactory fashion.

Then, there are the decisions to double-down on those decisions with five of the players. That is a revealing strategy.

Defensively, the Saints have now held 13 of 14 of its last opponents to 20 points or fewer, a remarkable statistic of excellence. The only exception was yielding 26 points to Tampa Bay in a 26-9 loss this season.

Once again, that number does not reveal the truth of what should have occurred, translating into victories.

The Saints are a mediocre 7-7 in those 14 games because New Orleans has scored 20 points of fewer in 10 of those 14 games, averaging just 16.1 points per game in those contests. That will not win you many games in the NFL. The only reason the Saints are .500 in those games is the play of the defense, which has allowed just 15.2 points per game in those contests.

In the 20-13 loss at Houston, the Saints had drives which resulted in a touchdown and two field goals.

Then, there were the last four drives of the game for New Orleans which reached the Houston 27-, 11-, 15-, and 24-yard lines.

The perception would be that the Saints derived significant scores from those penetrations.

The reality is New Orleans totaled a paltry three points in those possessions, a dismal result.

Carr passed for 353 yards. That is a season-high and one of the highest totals in the league this year.

The perception is that those yards would translate into points.

The reality was starkly different.

Carr is currently 17th in the QBR rankings in the league.

While not bad, it is not good enough for the investment of four years and $150 million, particularly when your team is 3-3, your offense cannot score and those in front of you include Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, C.J. Stroud and Gardner Minshew, a backup in the league.

Purdy is making less than $1 million annually on his rookie deal with San Francisco. The 49ers are 5-1.

Mayfield is working on a one-year deal worth $4 million with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers lead the NFC South at 3-2.

Smith, primarily a reserve previously, took over for Russell Wilson, had a good season in 2022, and signed a three-year, $105 million deal earlier this year. Seattle is 3-2.

Stroud is a rookie, operating on a four-year, $36,279,243 deal. The Texans are 3-3, matching last year’s win total already.

Minshew, a career reserve, is making $3.75 million on a one-year deal. The Colts are 3-3.

Carr is completing 65 percent of his passes, right at his career average. He has thrown just three interceptions but has a modest number of five touchdown passes.

To Carr’s credit, he is playing at less than 100 percent with a sprained AC joint and most of the failure is not on his shoulders.

To Carr’s detriment, the Saints are not scoring, averaging just under 18.2 points per game. The last time the Saints averaged less was prior to the Sean Payton regime, in the horrendous 2005 season stricken by Hurricane Katrina, when the Saints averaged just 14.7 points per game.

When you subtract the 34 points against New England, the Saints are averaging a miserable 15 points per game.

That number could be better.

Rookie kicker Blake Grupe has made 13-of-16 field goal attempts, a solid 81 percent conversion rate. That is acceptable at first glance.

What is not acceptable is missing a 46-yard attempt wide right with just over a minute to play which could have won the game for the Saints in Green Bay in an 18-17 loss.

What is not acceptable is missing two field goals at Houston which greatly altered the game. One was from 52 yards. If Grupe had made those two attempts, the strategy later in the game would have changed dramatically, with Allen not having to go for it twice in field goal range, failing both times. One of those misses came from 29 yards as he yanked it wide left.

That came a week after Grupe was the NFL Special Teams Player of the Week for making field goals of 53 and 54 yards at New England. It is a performance-based league for kickers, based on what you have done for your team lately.

The Saints elected to gamble on Grupe, an unproven rookie, over a proven veteran in Wil Lutz, who was coming off a poor season following an injury. New Orleans saved money in the process. Lutz made the All-Rookie team in 2016 and was a Pro Bowl kicker in 2019. His career field goal percentage now sits at 85 percent conversions.

Lutz had game-winning field goals of 58 and 52 yards in the clutch for New Orleans and made a 60-yarder as well. Performing with the game on the line is huge, very often the determining factor in winning and losing games in the NFL.

Currently, Lutz is 8-of-9 this season on field goal attempts and had a big miss on an extra point in a 17-16 loss to the Raiders. His one field goal miss was from 55 yards. Those failures clearly cost Denver the game.

Time will tell if the decision to go with Grupe over Lutz is a good one but given the losses in Green Bay and Houston, the kicker made a huge difference in the outcome of both games. A record of 4-2 would look a lot better than 3-3. A record of 5-1 would be huge.

The Saints are 27th of 32 teams in red zone offense. Frankly, I thought it be worse than that.

Dennis Allen is a good defensive coach. No one will dispute that. The evidence over the course of an extensive career of working on that side of the ball in the NFL is clear.

As a head coach, Allen now has a record of 18-41. That includes 10-13 with the Saints. We will certainly know more by the end of the season as to his ability to become a good NFL head coach and to continue in that capacity in New Orleans.

In those 23 games as head coach of the Saints, New Orleans has scored 16 or fewer points 10 times. The Saints are 1-9 in those games, the one exception being the 16-15 season opening win over Tennessee.

Sean Payton posted a 152-89 regular season record with the Saints, including nine playoff appearances with the Saints going 9-8. Payton’s teams reached three NFC championship games and won Super Bowl XLIV.

Payton had Drew Brees.

Allen does not.

Those numbers speak truth.

The statistic that matters is scoring points.

The Saints have scored a total of 10 touchdowns in six games and one of those was a defensive score while another was a punt return. That is simply not good enough.

The statistic that matters most is wins.

New Orleans 3-3 against a modest schedule of mediocre opponents. The remaining opponents are nine games under .500, to this point of the season.

The division remains very winnable, with Tampa Bay at 3-2, Atlanta at 3-3 and Carolina now 0-6.

While some statistics are revealing, some are misleading.

At this juncture, the 2023 New Orleans Saints remain mired in the mediocrity we saw last season.

Blame is not limited to just one aspect of the team. It is on the coaches, the offensive line, the quarterback, to some degree, and the kicking game.

The defense gets a pass as it has been good, simply not good enough to overcome the shortcomings of the offense and kicking game.

When all three aspects (offense, defense, kicking game) are good, you are going to have a very good team, capable of competing for a championship.

When you are good in two of the three aspects, you are going to have a good team, capable of being in the mix for a title.

When you are good in just one of the three aspects, you are a suspect team, capable of going just north or just south of the .500 mark.

That statistic is the truth of where the New Orleans Saints are right now.