State’s NCAA baseball tournament fate will play out this weekend

Seventy-two hours before the bracket is announced for the NCAA baseball championship, we can say for certain that three Louisiana schools will be playing next weekend – LSU, Louisiana and Louisiana Tech.

How many more Louisiana teams will make the field? That number could be anywhere from zero to three.

Let’s break it all down as conference tournaments head into the home stretch.

In the span of eight days, defending national champion LSU has gone from a team on the outside looking in to a team on a six-game winning streak and now not only solidly in the field, but likely a No. 2 regional seed as it awaits Saturday’s SEC Tournament semifinals in Hoover, Alabama.

LSU (39-20) has vaulted to No. 24 in Friday morning’s RPI.

The Tigers cannot be placed in a regional hosted by an SEC team, which likely means they are on a plane. The closest non-SEC site as a likely host is Florida State, which is 442 miles away from Baton Rouge.

As we’ve seen over the years, the Tigers can get sent anywhere in this scenario. They’ve been shipped to UCLA and Oregon State before.

Conference USA regular season champion Louisiana Tech (41-15) is No. 27 in the RPI and is likely a No. 2 seed as well. Some projections have suggested that if Tech wins the CUSA tournament on its home field, that it could creep into the hosting conversation.

Texas A&M and Arkansas are both inside the 400-mile radius (the maximum distance from which the NCAA can bus teams to a regional site) from Ruston. If Mississippi State can bounce back after its Thursday night loss in the SEC Tournament with a deep run, it could move into the hosting mix and would also be a destination candidate for Tech.

Sun Belt Conference regular season champ Louisiana (40-18) slipped down to No. 39 in the RPI after an 0-2 run in the Sun Belt tournament in Montgomery, Alabama.

Despite that slippage, the Ragin’ Cajuns still are projected as a No. 2 seed based on winning the title by three games in a conference ranked fifth in the RPI.

Texas A&M has been the most popular projected destination, since it is a 300-mile trip from Lafayette. Similar to Tech, the Cajuns could also go to Starkville if Mississippi State gets a host. Any other site involves a plane trip.

As for the rest of the state’s teams, it takes a conference tournament championship to make the 64-team field.

Tulane and Nicholls each made the field of 64 with tournament wins a year ago, and both have started their conference tournament title defenses with 2-0 starts this week to move within one win of the championship game.

The Green Wave (33-24), after Thursday’s victory over Charlotte in the American Athletic Conference tournament, has an RPI of 92. The Colonels (35-20) have moved all the way to 72 in the RPI after Thursday night’s extra-inning win over host Southeastern in the Southland tournament.

The number of tournament upsets across the country not only affects the at-large bubble, but it could impact the seeding for Tulane and Nicholls. A No. 3 seed is not out of the question for either team.

McNeese (29-25) is the other Southland unbeaten and will face top-seeded Lamar later Friday for a berth in the conference championship game. In what has turned into a southeast Louisiana bracket, Nicholls awaits the winner of this afternoon’s matchup between Southeastern and New Orleans, needing one win over the survivor to reach the title game. Northwestern State was eliminated Thursday.

In the SWAC, Southern has been eliminated while Grambling (22-26) dropped into the loser’s bracket after falling to Florida A&M Thursday. The Tigers need four wins over the next three days if they are to claim the title.

The selection show is at 11 a.m. CDT Monday on ESPN2. The 16 regionals begin May 31.