Keys to the game, prediction for Ole Miss-Tulane

Tulane opened the season in dominant fashion, defeating the visiting South Alabama Jaguars, 37-17, in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as expected.

Up next on the schedule, the Green Wave will face much more stout competition Saturday at Yulman Stadium.

Ole Miss recorded an equally strong Week 1 victory, trouncing Mercer, 73-7, under the guidance of offensive mastermind Lane Kiffin (if the final score wasn’t enough to imply that, despite the quality of the opponent). The Rebels romped on side of the ball, although the Bears aren’t exactly the best measuring stick for how good the SEC West squad may be.

The last time Tulane and Ole Miss met back in 2021, the Rebels cruised to a 61-21 victory as 14-point favorites.

A lot has changed since then on both sides.

In what Tulane hopes will be their biggest statement win over the past two years outside of the 46-45 victory over USC in the Cotton Bowl, here’s a look into what to watch in the matchup for both teams.

Tulane:

In addition to center Sincere Haynesworth, the most important returner on offense to the Green Wave was quarterback Michael Pratt. He had a near perfect game against South Alabama, completing 14-of-15 passes for 294 yards with four touchdowns. The only incompletion was a dropped touchdown pass by wide receiver Jha’quan Jackson.

Outside of Pratt, who looked a bit gimpy after taking a big hit on Saturday, one offensive player to watch with great interest and curiosity is wide receiver Chris Brazzell II. The redshirt freshman did most of his damage early against South Alabama, finishing with four receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown against USA. Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle may look to isolate the 6-foot-5 Brazzell in one-on-one matchups against the Rebels.

One of the biggest losses Tulane suffered last week came from an injury that sidelined linebacker Corey Platt Jr., ruled out for Saturday according to head coach Willie Fritz. Platt was all over the field against the Jaguars, finishing with 15 tackles and a sack of Sun Belt Conference Player Of The Year candidate Carter Bradley.

If Tulane is to pull off an upset, expect defensive lineman Patrick Jenkins to be one of the most prominent Green Wave playmakers against Ole Miss. Jenkins have five combined tackles (three solo), 2.0 sacks, a pair of tackles for loss and a forced fumble in the season opener.

Ole Miss:

The Rebels are an improved team from last year. Where the defense is specifically concerned, the bar was low. The lackluster unit was particularly poor on run defense. As a whole, the defense allowed an average of around 35 points over the final seven games of 2022.

Between the hire of new defensive coordinator Pete Golding and cornerbacks coach Keynodo Hudson, the addition of transfers like linebacker Monty Montgomery and veteran returnees including Jared Ivery and JJ Pegues, the Rebels are expected to be more sound on that side of the ball with an focus on an uptick in takeaways.

Tulane’s run defense is going to have to be stout in order to win. Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart recorded 614 rushing yards last season. Focus in Oxford has been on his improvement as a passer. The USC transfer rose to the occasion in his 2023 debut, completing 18-of-23 passes for 334 yards and four touchdowns. The Green Wave would rather force Dart to win with his arm though.

The major point of concern comes in the form of running back Quinshon Judkins, who finished 2022 ranked seventh among college football running backs in total rushing yards with 1,567 as a true freshman. He added 16 touchdowns on the ground.

Prediction:

With the Rebels favored by just over a touchdown, many still anticipate as close contest. I am buying stock in the Green Wave offense, which will do enough to pull off the upset, 40-37. Both teams will learn a lot about themselves from this one regardless.