Seven conference tournaments for NCAA baseball bubble teams like LSU to watch

Come Memorial Day – or Selection Monday in the world of college baseball – 64 teams will learn their postseason fate.

The field will evolve over the course of the next few days as teams do that last little bit to earn their way into the field and surprise teams land automatic berths by winning their conference tournaments.

The question for teams sitting on the bubble is, how much will the bubble shrink between now and Sunday? In other words, how many surprises in the conference tournaments will knock league leaders from a likely automatic berth into an at-large, shrinking the bubble in the process?

When LSU last missed the NCAA tournament in 2011, there were four upsets on the final weekend that may have been the difference between the Tigers playing in a regional or turning in their equipment on Memorial Day.

The tournaments to watch this week are ones with one or two teams with good enough resumes to get into the field without an automatic berth. If those favorites win, it’s good news for teams on the bubble. If not, it’s more sweating until Monday.

As tournament action across the country gets underway Tuesday, here are seven tournaments to monitor this week (overall records and RPI as of Monday in parentheses):

Atlantic Sun: Two teams in the A-Sun are definitely in the field of 64. Stetson (41-11, 8) is a likely regional host, while Jacksonville (37-17, 18) will be a solid No. 2 seed, probably in either Gainesville or Tallahassee. The scary team in the field – No. 7 seed Florida Gulf Coast (32-21, 80), who would have been in the at-large discussion as well but lost nine of its last 10 games.

Big East: Regular-season champ St. John’s (36-14, 33) isn’t a lock to make the field of 64, but if the Red Storm fail to win the conference tournament, it will make for some interesting discussions in the committee room. Only the top four teams go to the conference tournament – St. John’s, Seton Hall, Butler and Creighton.

Colonial Athletic Association: Regular-season champ Northeastern (33-17, 35) has had a high RPI all season, thanks to a challenging and road-heavy non-conference schedule that includes series against Texas Tech, Auburn, Missouri and Creighton. If the Huskies don’t win the league tournament, they may have enough to still get in.

Conference USA: One of the nation’s more interesting tournaments will take place in Biloxi. Southern Miss (39-15, 45) won the league by 2 1/2 games, while LA Tech (38-18, 59) closed fast to edge out Florida Atlantic (36-15-1, 31) for the No. 2 seed. This won’t be a four-bid league by any stretch of the imagination, but a finals matchup not included these three teams would make for some sweating on the bubble.

Missouri Valley: In terms of resume, league champ Missouri State (35-15, 30) and runner-up Dallas Baptist (36-17, 37) are both in decent shape heading into the conference tournament, which is being played on DBU’s home field. If someone else wins the tournament, however, it’s possible one of these teams could get bumped from the field of 64.

Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech (46-7, 21) won the league’s regular-season title by seven games and will be in the NCAA field, win or lose this week. No other OVC team is within 100 spots of Tennessee Tech in the latest RPI.

Sun Belt: The only NCAA lock heading into this week’s tournament in Lafayette is Coastal Carolina (38-17, 24). Three other teams could move squarely onto the bubble with good weeks – Troy (38-18, 43), South Alabama (30-23, 52) and the homestanding Ragin’ Cajuns (33-23, 54).