Saints QB Quandry: Naked eye says Winston, numbers say Dalton for now

The decision to start Andy Dalton over a “healthy” Jameis Winston at quarterback is intriguing, a huge conversation point and even perplexing to some.

Digging into Saints head coach Dennis Allen’s choice, here is what the evidence says.

With Dalton starting, New Orleans is third in offense behind the Bills and Chiefs, averaging 417 yards and 31 points per game. Of course, the Saints are just 1-3 in those starts after going 1-2 this season with Winston at the controls.

The Saints have had 46 offensive drives led by Dalton as opposed to Winston’s 33 drives. Dalton has posted a total QBR of 51 with an 90.1 rating while Winston has posted a 32.7 QBR with a 79.5 rating.

Dalton has thrown seven touchdowns with four interceptions while Winston had four touchdown passes with five interceptions. The percentage of passes off target for Dalton is 10 percent while that total is 21 percent for Winston. Dalton has completed 63.8 percent of his passes at 7.68 yards per attempt while Winston has completed 63.5 percent of his throws for a 7.5 yards per attempt.

Clearly signed early in the fofseason to be a solid backup quarterback and not a starter, Dalton was also prioritized by the organization as insurance to step in and play competent football if needed.

Winston was re-signed after the organization went all-in on trying to sign Deshaun Watson, an elite talent with a unique issue off the field. The move was made for Winston to be the starter. The Saints are 7-4 in games which Winston started.

While Watson is a top-shelf talent, the relentless pursuit of him told us that the Saints valued his abilities but also had some reservations about the ability of Winston to be their man. Perhaps Winston’s knee injury factored into that decision.

The offense has certainly had more rhythm with Dalton this season. Winston clearly has a stronger arm than Dalton. Neither has much in the way of mobility.

The wild card is Taysom Hill, who, despite criticism of his play at quarterback, is 7-2 as a starting quarterback for the Saints and has a ton of mobility. He is 5 of 7 passing for 86 yards and a touchdown this season.

Of course, Hill is a monstrous threat running the football, rushing 29 times for 276 yards and five touchdowns.

Dalton turns 35 Saturday. Winston is 28. Hill is 32.

Dalton is not the future of the franchise.

Winston may or may not be the future of the franchise but if, indeed, he is healthy, the arrow points toward him not being that guy.

Hill would not appear to be the future of the franchise, given he had the opportunity to show his talent in extended trials in both 2020 and 2021.

For the present, Dennis Allen and his staff obviously feel Dalton gives the Saints the best chance to win. If Dalton falters, Winston will be back behind center.

Right now, Allen is going with the somewhat hot hand, for better or for worse.

Right now, the Saints do not have a first-round draft pick in 2023 but Sean Payton is also unemployed as a coach. The latter will change in 2023, which means the former needs to change as a result. If Payton goes elsewhere as anticipated, a trade could land the Saints a much-needed first-round pick with which they may invest in a high-end quarterback prospect.

Payton was in town enjoying a Pelicans game Tuesday night and just left town to return to his Los Angeles job front with Fox Sports.

Until that scenario plays itself out, Allen will simply play the guy whom he thinks can provide the best chance to win a single game each week.