Saints-Panthers Preview by the Numbers: Will playoff matchup be high-scoring?

Saints-Panthers Preview by the Numbers: Will Sunday be high-scoring?

As the Saints get ready to face their NFC South rival, the Carolina Panthers, for the first time ever in the playoffs, here’s a deeper dig into the numbers to suggest what may happen Sunday afternoon in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Might Take A Bunch: Of the last seven Saints-Panthers meetings in the Dome – perhaps not coincidentally, the era in which Drew Brees and Cam Newton have gone head-to-head – the winning team has scored at least 30 points each year and at least 40 in five of the seven. Along the way, there have been a pair of 41-38 teams and a 44-38 game.

Perhaps the perfect conditions of the Dome, and the Saints’ greater effectiveness on Poydras Street, has something to do with it. To wit: The last seven games in Charlotte have produced an average of 18 fewer points per game than their counterparts in New Orleans.

Run To Win? In the two victories over the Panthers this season, the Saints rushed for 149 and 148 yards, respectively. Those were two of seven games New Orleans topped the 140-yard mark on the ground. Since Sean Payton became head coach in 2006, the Saints are 43-4 in regular-season games when rushing for at least 140 yards.

Carolina, of course, has had more success over the years running the football, and even in enemy territory. The Panthers have won three times in the Dome since 2012 – all when rushing for at least 175 yards.

Make Cam One-Dimensional: Newton is one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. He even led the Panthers this season with 754 rushing yards. Taking away his ability to run the football could be a key on Sunday.

In Newton’s career (regular season and postseason), the Panthers are 12-2-1 when he has at least 12 rushing attempts and 14-4-1 when he has 60 or more rushing yards.

Only 13 times in 109 career games has Newton completed 70 percent of his passes (by contrast, Brees has 89 such games in 190 starts with the Saints). The Panthers are a perfect 13-0 in those games.

Drew’s Keys: The key to Brees’ home playoff success goes along with where the Saints’ success has lied over the last decade – avoiding mistakes.

In four playoff starts at home with the Saints, Brees has 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In each of his last three home playoff starts, Brees has passed for three TDs.

Home Field Advantage: Since 2000, the Saints are 5-0 in playoff games inside the Superdome and 1-5 in playoff true road games. In their last two playoff appearances, the Panthers are 3-0 in Charlotte and 0-2 away from home.

The Saints last lost a playoff home game 25 years ago this week, 36-20 to the Philadelphia Eagles. Carolina last won a playoff road game in January 2006, 29-21 at Chicago.

Anniversary: Sunday will mark six years to the day of the Saints’ last home playoff game – a 45-28 victory over the Detroit Lions on Jan. 7, 2012.

In that game, Brees completed 33 of 43 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns. The yardage is the most in a regulation game in NFL postseason history. Coincidentally, Brees had the second-most yards in a regulation playoff game (462) seven days later at San Francisco.

Sunday Funday: In the Saints’ playoff appearances in 2010, 2011 and 2013, New Orleans played each of its five games on Saturdays. The franchise’s last Sunday playoff game? Believe it or not, it was the Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Indianapolis Colts.

In fact, only three of New Orleans’ 12 playoff games since 2000 have been on Sundays – the two NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl.

Research assistance courtesy Pro Football Reference.