Pelicans must improve in several areas to challenge best out West

The New Orleans Pelicans’ 7-7 start has left fans wondering what’s wrong with a team expected by many to challenge for a top tier Western Conference playoff seed.

Injuries to key players have been a factor. Pelicans’ starters have missed a combined 14 games. Elfrid Payton has been out for nine games with a sprained ankle, Anthony Davis missed three with an elbow sprain, and Nikola Mirotic missed a pair with an ankle sprain of his own (he left Wednesday’s loss to Minnesota after re-injuring  that same ankle).

Payton’s injury has been particularly frustrating for fans, seeing as the team is thin when it comes to ball handling. With Payton sidelined, Jrue Holiday has had to spend more time on the ball. Holiday is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game, his highest since 2012-13.

Anthony Davis on trying to evaluate #Pelicans thru 14 games: "Guys are in and out of the lineup. We haven't been healthy (to know) how we can truly play. When everyone was healthy, we went 4-0, but we can't use it as an excuse. Every team has guys that are probably not healthy"

— Jim Eichenhofer (@Jim_Eichenhofer) November 15, 2018

The team’s inconsistency on defense has been another factor. New Orleans currently ranks 23rd in the NBA with a Defensive Rating of 111.4. Last season they finished 14th, but were one of the elite defenses in the league during their run to the playoffs.

Over the final 15 games of last season, the Pelicans were the NBA’s third best defense, posting a DRTG of 102.9.

It’s not just that the Pels are getting beaten defensively, it’s how they’re getting beaten that’s so frustrating to watch.

Jrue Holiday hasn’t been the only Pelican who’s been giving the basketball away. New Orleans ranks 18th in the NBA with 15.1 turnovers per contest and is giving up nearly 17 points off of them.

The Pelicans are next to last, beating out only the lowly Suns, in fast break points allowed (16.6), and they are surrendering more than 50 points in the paint each night.

New Orleans’ point differential of 1.2 is less than last season’s 1.3.

Tim Frazier, Solomon Hill, Ian Clark, Frank Jackson, Jahlil Okafor and Julius Randle have all struggled at times to play adequate individual defense, let alone team defense.

The Pelicans’ bench has been in disarray as well. Outside of Julius Randle, there has been no consistency on the second unit. Randle has 13 games in double figures, the rest of the bench has combined for only seven such games.

But at the heart of all of the problems is Anthony Davis. For the last time I’m going to preface my commentary by restating that Davis is a generational talent, a player that will go down as one of the best of all time. We all accept that as fact.

Another fact, unfortunately, is that Davis has not lived up to the statistical standards he created or the MVP-level standards he demanded prior to the season.

It would be hard to convince me that Davis has been the most valuable player on the Pelicans so far. Though he shows plenty of his brilliance, Jrue Holiday, Niko Mirotic, Julius Randle and E’Twaun Moore have all been more consistent in their effort and production this season.

Pelicans have 5 players averaging over 15ppg. Here are the averages and FG%. Wild how AD has the lowest FG%.

Anthony davis: 25.0, .459

Nikola Mirotic: 20.3, .484

Jrue Holiday: 19.1, .466

Julius Randle: 16.9, . 551

E'twaun Moore: 16.0, .563

— Shamit Dua (@FearTheBrown) November 15, 2018

AD is shooting a career-low 45.9 percent from the field. His 8.7 field goals made per game is his lowest output since the 2013-14 season and his shot attempts are the lowest they’ve been in three years.

Though Davis is making a career-best 40 percent of his three pointers, his shooting inside the arc has fallen off dramatically. Prior to this season AD had never converted less than 51 percent of his two point attempts.

From every distance, his production has slipped.

According to Basketball Reference, Davis is making 69.4 percent of his shots at the rim, 35.3 percent between three and 10 feet, 20.8 percent from 10 to 16 feet, and 16.7 percent from 16 feet to the three point line.

Last season those numbers were 73.9 (down 4.5 pct), 48.8 (down 13.5 pct), 41.2 (down 20.4 pct), and 34.9 (down 18.2 pct).

KAT blocks Anthony Davis, Wiggins slams it on the other end!! #TWolves pic.twitter.com/JWDln35BSJ

— #FreePhillipDorsett (@ftbeard_17) November 15, 2018

A huge portion of AD’s success last season was his offensive efficiency. This season he’s barely above replacement value at his position (0.9 rating). For his career, Davis has averaged a VORP of 3.78.

Davis’ player efficiency rating is also at its lowest point since the 2015-16 season. AD’s current 25.5 mark would be the third lowest of his career.

Defensively, he’s been losing his individual matchups lately, or at least not dominating in the way he should.

Even with Davis in the middle, teams have not been shy about going inside. This is how opposing bigs have done over AD’s last six games.

• Karl Anthony Towns – 25 points/16 rebounds/9-17 shooting
• Pascal Siakam/Serge Ibaka – 41 points/17 rebounds/16-28 shooting
• DeAndre Ayton – 20 points/12 rebounds/9-12 shooting
• Wendell Carter Jr. – 17 points/11 rebounds/7-11 shooting
• Steven Adams – 18 points/8 rebounds/9-12 shooting
• LaMarcus Aldridge – 22 points/12 rebounds/6 assists/11-21 shooting

That’s an average of 20.4 points and 10.8  rebounds while shooting 60.3 percent. During his last six games AD has averaged 24 points and 12.5 rebounds on 43.3 percent shooting.

Of course, Davis wasn’t responsible for every one of those points allowed but, for whatever reason, this season the gap between AD’s production and his opponents has narrowed and the Pelicans are paying a cost for that.

Pascal Siakam putting in work on Anthony Davis. 20 Points shooting 63% from the field. pic.twitter.com/6Plfg8jEJs

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 13, 2018

After beating his hometown Bulls, Davis said that he had been trying too hard and that he was over-thinking the game. It seems as if Davis has yet to find the roadmap out of his head.

The Pelicans are in a much better place at the top of their rotation than they were just two seasons ago. From 1-6 (counting a healthy Elfrid Payton) New Orleans has as good a group as any in the West outside of Golden State.

While they continue to tinker with the bench and try to get healthier, the Pelicans don’t need Anthony Davis to be perfect. They just need him to be better.

Hopefully Davis returns to form soon. Hovering around .500 for half of the season as they did last season would make the odds of hosting a first round series much longer, along with the chances of improving upon last year’s results.