Passing yardage record next in Brees assault on NFL record books

The percentages say Saints quarterback Drew Brees should break the NFL record for career passing yards at some point during the game against Washington next Monday night in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

And Brees is really good with percentages.

The NFL’s leader in career passing percentage is averaging 324 yards per game this season after throwing for 217 in a 33-18 victory at the New York Giants on Sunday, and he needs just 201 yards to break Peyton Manning’s record of 71,940 passing yards.

One of the keys to Brees’ remarkable completion rate is his remarkable ability to rapidly and astutely identify the highest-percentage target each time he chooses where to throw the football.

When the record-breaking time comes, perhaps as early as the second quarter, Brees will almost certainly line up in the shotgun, look over the defense, perhaps change the blocking scheme or even the play itself to process his best chance for success.

“If he doesn’t see something that he likes,” fullback Zach Line said, “he’ll change it to something he does like.”

Brees will find the best option regardless of how deep into his progressions he has to go in the few seconds he has to do so.

“He sees the defense through a different lens,” tight end Josh Hill said. “There are only so many people who can see all 22 guys on the field at one time. He has that ability.”

The statistics suggest the history-making completion is most likely to go to Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara, who are among the league leaders in receptions. But it wouldn’t be surprising if it goes to rookie receiver Tre’Quan Smith or one of the tight ends (Hill, Benjamin Watson or Dan Arnold) or Line. Heck, if head coach Sean Payton is in a playful mood it could even go to Jermon Bushrod as a tackle-eligible.

“I love equal opportunity,” Brees said.

He sure does.

Last week in Atlanta, the Saints faced fourth and goal at the 1 at a critical point in the fourth quarter of a shoot-out. Brees flipped the ball into the right flat to Line, who had 10 catches in 50 career games, and Line ran untouched into the end zone.

“You’ve got to be ready at all times,” Line said. “Sean’s not afraid to call any plays. If it’s a play that’s going to work he’ll call it and Drew’s not afraid to execute the play at any time that it’s called.”

In 17 seasons, Brees, 39, has completed passes to 80 different players, including himself (on seven deflections). In the regular season he has thrown touchdown passes to 62 players, most recently Cameron Meredith, who was active for the first time against the Falcons and caught an 11-yard touchdown. In the playoffs, Brees has thrown touchdown passes to 17 different players.

Brees makes it a point to develop an immediate connection with a new receiver to whom he expects to immediately start completing passes.

Austin Carr was signed by the Saints just before the start of last season after he was released by New England.

The next day Brees walked up to the new receiver before his first practice as a Saint.

“He shook my hand and said, “hey, Austin, my name’s Drew. I’m excited to work with you, really looking forward to being your teammate,'” Carr recalled.

The next day the former Purdue quarterback and the former Northwestern wide receiver sat together in the team cafeteria and “talked a little Big Ten football.”

“We got to know each other a little off the field,” Carr said. “I think that kind of intangible X factor is definitely a difference maker. At the time I had contributed nothing to this organization.

“I was still unproven, but to have him come to me and to express a desire to succeed together definitely made a difference and definitely was something that immediately made me feel responsible to carry my weight.”

At barely six feet tall (if that), Brees often has to stand on his tippytoes in order to see the whole defense. He doesn’t have the strongest arm, but it’s strong enough for him to make all the throws he needs to make – and his accuracy is unparalleled.

On top of that he has established mutual trust with anyone who could potentially be on the receiving end of one of his passes.

Hill, who joined New Orleans as an undrafted free agent in 2013, remembers Brees bailing him out on Hill’s only touchdown reception as a rookie.

“It was a bad route, but he made me right,” Hill said. “There were three guys around and he put it in the one spot where I could get to it. It was a play I hadn’t made that season. He put it in a spot and trusted me.”

“When you see the offense rolling on all cylinders,” Carr said, “the foundation of that is definitely trust.”

The trust is built one rep at a time from Organized Team Activities and mini-camp in the spring, through each training camp practice, preseason games and regular-season practice reps and games

Line is in his second season in New Orleans and he still marvels at Brees’ attention to detail with each rep he takes.

“In walkthroughs or any kind of team drill he’ll go right to his read and throw his pass and then he’ll go right down the line to every single spot that he would go to next,” Line said. “So you get a feel of when that ball is going to come to you and he gets a feel of where you’re going to be. That’s next level. That’s something I’ve never seen a quarterback do.”

Brees regularly stays after practice to work with receivers on specific routes that he expects to use in the next game.

“Every week with the game plan he details whatever plays he feels he’s going to need so much with the receivers after practice that any play that’s called you’re going to have confidence that he’s going to make it work,” offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. said.

In the season opener against Tampa Bay, Line saw Brees come his way on a play on which the ball figured to go anywhere else.

“It was a pass that 99.9 percent of the time is never coming to me,” Line said, “but in this one look it’s coming to me.”

Though he gets the occasional opportunity to catch a pass, Line has a clear understanding of his priorities in the passing game.

“Protection is first, route-running is second to me,” Line said. “As long as we keep number nine upright he’s going to make some special things happen – as you can see in the record books.”

The record books show that Brees, who broke Brett Favre’s standard for career completions when he got number 6301 at Atlanta, has twice broken the NFL season record for completion percentage, most recently last season when he completed 72 percent.

Though this season is just one-quarter old, he is completing his passes at an even more remarkable 76 percent rate.

Brees was asked if he believed that rate was sustainable.

“I don’t see why not,” he replied.

Hill was asked for his reaction.

“If that’s what he said,” Hill replied, “I’m going with him.”

Sounds like the percentage play.