Mahomes likely to take home MVP while Brees has better chance at another Super Bowl title

It is a compelling story.

A 23 year old gunslinger in his first season as a NFL starting quarterback leads his team to a 12-4 record, a division title and for the season throws 50 touchdown passes or more.

It is the narrative that Saints quarterback Drew Brees is up against in voting for the league’s Most Valuable Player.

While Brees gives way as a starter to Teddy Bridgewater in week 17, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be trying to secure the AFC West title and more for the Chiefs against the Raiders.

The stakes are huge for Kansas City. The Chiefs can be the number one in the AFC with a win. With a loss and a Chargers’ win at Denver, Mahomes’ team will be a wild card.

Brees has statistical edges in interceptions thrown (5 to 11 for Mahomes) and in completion percentage (74.4 to 66.4 for Mahomes). 

Brees is super steady while Mahomes is often spectacular.

Mahomes has 13 completions of 40 yards or more, Brees has six. Mahomes has 72 completions of 20 yards or more, Brees has 58.

However, the biggest discrepancy is in touchdown passes. Mahomes has 48 while Brees has thrown 32. In the last five games, Mahomes has thrown 17 touchdown passes to seven for Brees.

Who has the better supporting cast? Well, for most of the season, it was Mahomes who had an elite runner (Kareem Hunt), elite wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) and elite tight end (Travis Kelce).

Hunt was averaging 4.6 yards a carry with seven rushing touchdowns when he was waived in November after video showed him striking a woman.

Meanwhile, Brees has gotten superb years from wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. Thomas has 9 of the team’s 32 receiving touchdowns while Kamara has 14 of the club’s 25 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Mark Ingram has been solid as well with seven touchdowns from scrimmage in 11 games.

But even with consecutive losses prior to the regular season finale, the optics in the MVP race favor Mahomes. His six touchdown passes in a 54-51 loss to the Rams on Monday night created huge buzz. Before that in a 43-40 loss to the Patriots in Foxboro, Mahomes shredded New England for 352 yards and four touchdown passes. Both games were marquee in primetime.

In Brees’ last three national TV games, he threw for 127 yards at Dallas, 203 at Carolina, and tossed one touchdown pass with zero interceptions in a 31-28 win Sunday afternoon against Pittsburgh.

So, on Sunday, while Mahomes is likely to surpass 5,000 passing yards for the season, Brees will be stuck at 3,992 while Teddy Bridgewater makes his first New Orleans start in a game that means nothing to the Saints’ Super Bowl pursuit. It will be his first season in New Orleans with less than 4,000 passing yards.

Brees has led the Saints to impressive wins at Baltimore and at Minnesota. He also out-dueled Rams quarterback Jared Goff in a November 4th victory at the Superdome that was huge in eventually allowing New Orleans to lock up the top seed in the NFC.

If Mahomes wins the MVP, he could very likely be in attendance at NFL Honors on the Saturday before Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta. Brees will likely be preoccupied that night, getting ready to play for a world championship the following day.