Magic Man’s Race of the Week: Woodbine Mile

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After a couple of lean weeks, the Magic Man heads to Canada to give you a preview of the Woodbine Mile for older turf males. This race is part of three Breeders Cup ‘Win and Your In’ races. It should be a great day of quality racing at Woodbine. Below is my horse by horse preview of what should be a hotly contested feature race.

RACE 12 Ricoh Woodbine Mile S. (Grade I) POST TIME – 6:34 PM

ENTRIES PLUS (FREE)

PP (RACE 12)

Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta

Woodbine STAKES

Purse $800,000. (Plus $160,000 – State Bred). For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. One Mile. (Turf)

P# PP Horse  Virtual
Stable
A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 World Approval (FL) [ ] 5/G L J R Velazquez 124 M E Casse 7/2
2 2 Tower of Texas (ON) [ ] 6/G L E R Da Silva 121 R L Attfield 12/1
3 3 Long On Value (VA) [ ] 6/H L J Rosario 117 W I Mott 15/1
4 4 Best Bard (ON) [ ] 7/G L R M Hernandez 117 N McKnight 50/1
5 5 Dragon Bay (KY) [ ] 4/G L G Boulanger 121 S C Simon 20/1
6 6 Deauville (IRE) [ ] 4/C L J P Spencer 121 A P O’Brien 5/2
7 7 Conquest Panthera (KY) [ ] 5/G L P Husbands 121 M E Casse 12/1
8 8 Mondialiste (IRE) [ ] 7/H L1 J L Ortiz 121 D O’Meara 8/1
9 9 Arod (IRE) [ ] 6/H L1 H Bentley 117 D Simcock 20/1
10 10 Lancaster Bomber (KY) [ ] 3/C L1 W Lordan 112 A P O’Brien 9/2
11 11 Dutch Connection (GB) [ ] 5/H L1 M Barzalona 119 C Hills 6/1
12 12 Glenville Gardens (KY) [ ] 5/G L L Contreras 119 S C Attard 20/1

Owners: 1 – Live Oak Plantation; 2 – Thomas F. Van Meter II and Scott Dilworth; 3 – Wachtel Stable, George J. Kerr and Gary Barber; 4 – Bruno Schickedanz; 5 – Brent & Russell McLellan and Stuart C. Simon; 6 – Mrs. Fitri Hay, Mrs. John Magnier, Mr. Michael Tabor and Mr. Derrick Smith; 7 -Gary Barber; 8 – Geoff and Sandra Turnbull; 9 – Qatar Racing Limited; 10 – Mr. Michael B.Tabor ,Mr. Derrick Smith and Mrs. John Magnier; 11 -Godolphin; 12 – Janice Attard

Breeders: 1 – Live Oak Stud; 2 – Anderson Farms (Ontario) Inc. & RodFerguson; 3 – Snow Lantern Thoroughbreds; 4 – Richard L. Lister; 5 – Shawhan Place LLC; 6 – Mrs F. H. Hay; 7 – Kenneth L Ramsey & Sarah K. Ramsey; 8 – Wertheimer & Frere; 9 – Kabansk Ltd & Rathbarry Stud; 10 – Sun Shower Syndicate; 11 – Mrs S. M. Roy; 12 – Eugene Melnyk

Pedigrees (Sire – Dam, by Dam Sire): 1 – Northern Afleet – Win Approval , by With Approval ; 2 – Street Sense – Rare Opportunity , by Danzig Connection ; 3 – Value Plus – Long Message , by Orientate ; 4 – Shakespeare – Chamul , by Mutakddim ; 5 – Parading – Cologne , by Horse Chestnut (SAF) ; 6 – Galileo (IRE) – Walklikeanegyptian (IRE) , by Danehill ; 7 – Kitten’s Joy – Lastofthsummerwine , by Sky Mesa ; 8 – Galileo (IRE) -Occupandiste (IRE) , by Kaldoun (FR) ; 9 – Teofilo (IRE) – My Personal Space , by Rahy ; 10 – War Front – Sun Shower (IRE) , by Indian Ridge (IRE) ; 11 – Dutch Art (GB) – Endless Love (IRE) , by Dubai Destination ; 12 – Street Cry (IRE) – Navy Gardens , by Storm Cat ;

Sire of Conquest Panthera standing at Ramsey Farm

Horse-by-horse

1-World Approval has had two runs here and with mixed results. He comes in off a sharp score in the Fourstardave at Saratoga in his last out. Like his recent form. He has a big chance against what is a salty group of horses.

2-Tower of Texas almost shocked everyone in this race last year, falling short to the now retired champion filly Tepin. This horse and rider have had marked success with one another. It is a big price coming into race day but Tower again has proven he can compete against these types and loves this course. A very interesting longshot play for me in this spot.

3-Long on Value is another price type who has had an abbreviated campaign to this point. Showed well in his comeback race at Ascot, a very tough circuit in England, but also is one who is a touch inconsistent. This is one horse I will toss out of any gimmicks but I do so with trepidation because his best can get into the exotics.

4-Best Bard is one of the handful in here that I call a field filler. He has no business with this bunch when you see his form. His runs have come against claimers, and this is way more than he can handle. No thanks.

5-Dragon Bay looks the part of a long shot but he should be involved early on. As I analyze his form, I don’t think he has much of a chance when the real running starts so I am eliminating him from consideration for any part of gimmicks.

6-Deauville ran a very solid race in his last out in the Arlington Million in which he finished third. I feel like he has a really good chance here. I went against him in the Million but I suspect he could be my pick here so stay tuned.

7-Conquest Panthera shows some good efforts against this level of competition but this has been his busiest season of his career. He could be a fringe contender with his best, and he is one that I may consider on the back end of tickets.

8-Mondialiste is capable. If you get this guy’s top effort, he absolutely can be in the mix considering he owns a win over the early favorite Deauville. Yet I look at his recent form and do not feel like he is near where he should be, especially considering his body of work against lesser quality. I don’t like him here so I will let him beat me.

9-Arod has not run since April .You have to dig real deep to find a contending effort but is this his comeback spot? No, I think I will pass on him.

10-Lancaster Bomber does not sport a good record with only one win in 11 career outings. Although he is a decent price at 9-2 and I know some will consider him, I am not among those who will endorse him in this spot considering the depth and quality here.

11-Dutch Connection’s Timeform ratings suggest that he can be in the discussion and he is indeed capable. But he has run nine times at this distance and only owns three second-place finishes. That is one of the reasons I would dismiss him but he could be one of those who, if you throw out, he can beat you. Tough decision for me.

12-Glenville Gardens absolutely loves this course with six wins in 10 career starts but at this level he seems to struggle.against Grade 1 types. With the pace flow in here, he can be among those who can be considered for any exotics. He is another tough one for me in here.

My Selections

1-Deauville will lean here. Remember he had a tough rail trip and in mid stretch he looked as if he was going to win but fell just short. I feel like he breaks through.

2-World Approval is such a model of consistency and he enters here in very good form. If he can work out a trip from the rail, I absolutely think he can win. He will be no worse than a board finisher so he is a must use for exotics.

3-Tower of Texas almost won here last year and although this field is deeper in scope I believe he is very capable on his best. This is my price play for exotics so he is on my ticket.

4-Dutch Connection is one of several horses with which I could have filled this spot, but I will go with this guy because if I don’t he just could beat me out of the exacta.

I will be back with another edition of the Magic Man’s Race of the Week as we continue on the road to the 2017 Breeders Cup so until then as always may your winners be plentiful and your wallets be fat.

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George Pepis

George Pepis

Horse Racing Analyst

George Pepis provides racing analysis during each Fair Grounds racing season. He also shares commentary and selections for major stakes events and prep races around the country. In the past, George has hosted sports talk programming on WGSO 990am in New Orleans. He has served as both play-by-play and color analyst on Louisiana high school football radio and internet broadcasts.

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