LSU more capable, Alabama less invincible than previously thought

Casual college football observers as well as ardent LSU faithful anticipated a season of struggles for the Tigers. No one really envisioned a team making huge strides in Brian Kelly’s inaugural season of significant transition.

Following the one-point loss to Florida State in the season opener, LSU had most thinking that the so-close yet so-far theme would rule the season.

Brian Kelly’s bunch is a little ahead of schedule with a 6-2 mark, but just how far ahead? This weekend might be a good measuring stick.

This week, No 6 Alabama comes to Tiger Stadium. As usual, taking down the Crimson Tide would be a tall task. Just a few weeks ago, this might have been a game that had LSU fans looking to unload their tickets or just planning on a fishing trip this weekend. Now, it’s a hot ticket.

Both the Tide and Tigers appear similar in quite a few categories:

– Points per game — Alabama 43 | LSU 35
– Points allowed — Alabama 16.6 | LSU 21.1
– Total yards — Alabama 485 | LSU 450
– Yards allowed — Alabama 295.6 | LSU 346.3
– Passing yards allowed — Alabama 201.8 | LSU 204.3
– Rush yards allowed — Alabama 93.9 | LSU 142
– Interceptions — Alabama 3 | LSU 5
– 3rd down conversions — Alabama 46.5 % | LSU 49 %
– Red zone success — Alabama 89 % | LSU 87 %
– Red zone TD’s — Alabama 71 % | LSU 74 %

Let’s analyze some of the key players for Bama:

Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, transfer from Georgia Tech, is the “X” factor for the Tide offense. He has 672 yards rushing on a 6.9 yard average with 6 touchdowns and 31 pass receptions for 301 yards and three more scores. Fellow junior Jase McClellan, who will spell Gibbs in the backfield, has 312 rushing yards (5.8 yard average) and 3 TD’s.

A receiver, sophomore Ja’Corey Brooks is the primary Bama target with 21 grabs for 376 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kobe Prentice, a 2022 signee, has been a huge surprise with 28 catches for 279 yards and a TD.

As per usual, the Alabama defense is stellar. Jack linebacker Will Anderson is a major mismatch. Perhaps the best overall player available for the 2023 NFL Draft, the 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior has 12 tackles for loss and 6.0 sacks. He will demand double team wherever he lines up.

Tennessee transfer linebacker Henry To’o To’o is the ringleader with 60 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

Free safety senior Demarco Hellams chips in with 59 stops and a pick. Sophomore cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is an excellent cover man with 11 passes broken up and 23 tackles.

It’s no shock that Alabama has elite talent or that they are listed as a 13-point favorite this week. Nick Saban will post billboard material for his troops to “not eat the rat poison” and make it clear they have no margin for error after losing to Tennessee. Halloween is his birthday, and the 71 year old coach called Tiger Stadium one of the most challenging places to play in the country Monday at his press conference.

LSU has played better each week, with more confidence while making fewer mistakes. Alabama is a better team overall, no question, but Jayden Daniels gives the Purple and Gold a better than average chance if he keeps playing as well as he has the past two games.

Will Alabama place a spy on Daniels? More than likely but that will open someone else offensively at time with favorable one-on-one matchups or allow a back to slip out of the backfield to open space. Daniels now has a total grasp of the offense as a threat to make a big play throwing or running.

Against Tennessee, Daniels threw 45 passes and ran 16 times. Originally labeled as a run-first quarterback, he has changed his style over the course of the season. It has required dedication and extra work. He is much better overall player now than he was when he first arrived. Daniels is creative, makes better decisions and willing to let it rip as a passer after appearing much too conservative. His skills to get himself out of danger quickly are the type Saban has said are the most difficult to defend.

Helping Daniels to emerge is the development of the LSU offensive line, a unit that has seemed to come of age and adopt an identity over the last month or so. Their performance will have a major role in determining the outcome. Blocking Anderson and company is the key to any offensive success.

On the flip side, the Tigers’ defensive front led by B.J. Ojulari, Ali Gaye, Mekhi Wingo and Jaquelin Roy will be called upon to wreak havoc. They cannot allow the Alabama blockers to reach the second level on a consistent basis. It will be a tough job, but they are going to have to get pressure on quarterback Bryce Young. A sack or two would be great but applying consistent pressure on Young is vital.

Young capped a sensational season last year by throwing for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns. The 2021 Heisman winner is not anywhere close to that this season. He has 1,906 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 66% of his throws. He has added 137 yards as a runner with three scores, but Young is not viewed as a true dual-threat runner despire more-than-capable mobility. He is having a good season but not a dominating one with a lesser Tide wide receiver corps compared to 2021.

Looking at Alabama’s depth chart, it is still difficult to locate a weak link. Not many obvious weaknesses there. Yet, there are some matchup advantages that favor LSU.

– Alabama escaped with a 20-19 nail biter win over Texas on Sept. 10 and a 24-20 squeaker in Tuscaloosa without an injured Young to edge Texas A&M. Which Tide team will show up?

– It will be a game following sundown in Tiger Stadium. Despite the expected throng of Hounds Tooth derbies and red and white shakers, the raucous and partisan crowd adorned in Purple and Gold can make a difference.

– Alabama has committed an uncharacteristically-high 69 penalties, most in the SEC. Some have been drive killers. That is very un-Saban like.

– LSU clearly has the better group of receivers. Malik Nabers, Kayshon Boutte, Jaray Jenkins, and Brian Thomas have collectively accounted for 103 catches, 1.311 yards and 10 touchdowns. Freshman tight end Mason Taylor is emerging, adding 19 grabs for 178 yards and a touchdown so far.

-The LSU secondary may also tilt the scales in their favor. As a group, the secondary has made tremendous strides, especially considering that injuries have forced many lineup combinations. Some of the walking wounded, specifically safety Major Burns, are expected to return this week.

Brian Kelly has demonstrated in his first LSU campaign that he does not allow himself to get too emotional following a win or too low after a loss. His team has begun to adopt that mindset. Kelly took the job to compete against the best and win. Will this be the next big step in the process?