LSU looks like a good bet in 2022

It is an interesting line, courtesy of sportsbetting.ag.

The win total on LSU football in 2022 is seven games.

You can bet the over or the under. The under looks risky.

Using the sportsbetting metric, LSU has a higher projected win total that five teams on its schedule – Florida State, Southern, Mississippi State, New Mexico and Auburn.

The Tigers have the same total as Florida while Tennessee has a total of 7.5 and UAB has a total of 8.5. LSU figures to be favored in Tiger Stadium against both the Vols and Blazers.

If you are betting the over, you are betting that LSU’s starting quarterback, whther that’s Myles Brennan, Jayden Daniels or Garrett Nussmeier – can play at a reasonably high level.

You are also betting that the defense will be better than 10th in the Southeastern Conference in most points allowed while the LSU offense will be better than 12th in the SEC in yards per game. Those were their 2021 rankings, respectively.

Of course, you are betting that LSU can best last season’s win total by two games.

Remember, even in a season marked by a disastrous opener against UCLA and a coaching change mid-season, LSU managed to win six.

Brian Kelly can’t make that much of a difference?

You are betting that two coordinators, Matt House on defense, and Mike Denbrock on offense, two coaches with extensive college football pedigrees will make a difference.

You are betting that the offensive line will be much improved.

You are betting that LSU will rush for more than 3.3 yards per carry behind it.

You are betting that the Tigers, 12th in the SEC in rushing in 2021, will be much improved.

You are betting that Ole Miss won’t be nearly as good without quarterback Matt Corral.

You are still a skeptic about Arkansas, that had to go to overtime to beat LSU last November in Baton Rouge.

You are betting that Florida, who also changed coaches can be had, in Gainesville.

You are betting that you can hang on the road with those much-ballyhooed Texas Aggies, who LSU somehow defeated by three in Baton Rouge in late November.

You are betting that a healthy Kayshon Boutte, who played in only six games before being lost for the season, can come back and produce great numbers again. In six games, Boutte had 38 catches, nine of them for touchdowns.

You are betting that there’s a handful of tossup games on the LSU schedule, and if the Tigers play solidly they can win at least three of them.

I believe the 2022 season could mirror the 2000 season. That year, Nick Saban’s first LSU team reversed course from a three win team the year before to win eight.

When he took the LSU job, Brian Kelly gambled on himself that he could turn the fortunes of Tiger football rather quickly.

So, in 2022, if you are looking for a good bet, I’d bet on Kelly…and the over.