Jameis Winston could net Saints multiple end-of-year awards

The New Orleans Saints enjoyed an embarrassment of riches back in 2017 when cornerback Marshon Lattimore and running back Alvin Kamara earned the offensive and defensive rookie of the year awards. That same season, future hall of fame quarterback Drew Brees was also recognized as the clutch performer of the year.

Since then, the Saints have only been awarded one major recognition at the end of year ESPYs ceremony when wide receiver Michael Thomas set records to become 2019’s offensive player of the year. After receiving no awards in the 2020 and 2021 season, the tide could change in a major way this year.

Saints quarterback Jameis Winston is consistently considered the odds-on favorite to win this year’s NFL comeback player of the year recognition across several sports books. An award-winning performance in 2022 could benefit more than just his chances at the award however. For many teams, success and team achievements will go the way of the quarterback. How a team’s signal caller performs throughout the season could lead to greater recognition for the players around him.

That could certainly be the case for Thomas again and rookie receiver Chris Olave. Thomas rarely falls far behind Winston for comeback player odds and Olave is often consider at or very near the top for offensive rookie of the year. Is it too much to consider that a standout year off of his ACL injury for Winston could yield healthy production and greater recognition for Thomas and Olave? History shows that it is not.

The last five quarterbacks to play an entire season and be awarded comeback player of the year were Joe Burrow (2021), Andrew Luck (2018), Philip Rivers (2013), Peyton Manning (2012), and Matthew Stafford (2011). Averaging out their stat lines from those renowned seasons tells us that a stellar 2022 for Winston could prove to be fruitful. The five award-winners averaged 399 completions, a 67.9% completion rate, 4,675.8 passing yards, and threw 36.6 passing touchdowns to 13.4 interceptions. The largest ask for Winston will be to keep the interceptions down in a 17-game season, one additional contest in which the group participated.

One might be free to assume that a 4,500-4,700 passing-yard season with 35 or more touchdowns thrown to 17 or fewer interceptions will do the trick. In doing so, receivers like Thomas and Olave may be able to stake their claim for their own trophies by season’s end. Each of the five comeback-winning quarterbacks that played a full season enjoyed the luxury of at least one 1,000-yard receiver. In the cases of Burrow and Manning, they helped to produce a pair of them.

Accounting for 20% or more of a quarterback’s passing yardage in a season is not a tall task for a bonafide WR1 like Thomas. He would not even have to return to his stellar 2019 level of production to do that. In fact, in 2016, his rookie season, he immediately produced 22.4% of the Saints’ passing yardage. That same percentage of the award-winning average of 4,676 yards is only 1,047 receiving yards. That would be a career-low for Thomas in a full season, meaning it would not be too much to expect from him in 2022 as he returns from injury.

Meanwhile, a second receiver would need to emerge to produce opposite Thomas. Every quarterback listed above had a second receiver go for at least 750 receiving yards. Considering Olave’s play style and how it will complement Winston’s abilities downfield, (Winston ranked second in the NFL last year among qualifying quarterbacks in big time throw percentage per Pro Football Focus) 750 yards should not be considered out of reach for the rookie. In fact, there’s a chance that the Saints field two 1,000-yard receivers this season assuming all parties (Winston included) stay healthy.

If Winston performs above expectations, so too will his receivers. For Thomas and Olave that could lead to either, or potentially both, also walking away with end-of-year recognition. Especially if Winston surpasses marks enough to enter offensive player of the year or even MVP conversation.

High hopes around the New Orleans Saints are warranted, and this level of production would exceed even the more excited fan’s expectations. While it is nothing to hang your hats on, there is a possibility of multiple awards being graded by the end of the 2022 season to Saints players. Of course, there is only one trophy the organization and its players will have their eyes on throughout the year.