Frustrating Tom Brady remains key for Saints upset hopes in Tampa

The New Orleans Saints are down by not entirely out when it comes to the NFC South. With four teams sporting losing records in the division, the Saints have a chance to more than triple their current playoff odds with a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Monday night.

In order to do so, New Orleans will need to rely on the defensive prowess of head coach Dennis Allen and defensive coordinators Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard. The trio has done it before with a 9-0 Week 15 victory last season in Tampa. Doing so again will come down to one key factor: Frustrating Bucs quarterback Tom Brady.

Brady has not been mistake-prone under pressure in 2022, but he has certainly not been himself. When kept clean, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has the all-world passer with a 99.1 NFL passer rating. However, when pressured, Brady’s rating drops to 55.1.

While he’s not yet thrown an interception under pressure (he has only two on the season thus far), Brady’s completion percentage suffers tremendously. PFF has his percentage drop from 70.4 clean to 42.3 when pressured. His yards per attempt also plummets from 6.9 to 4.3. The NFL’s overall worst amongst quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks is 6.0.

This is where the Saints will need to take advantage. Their pass rush has stepped up over the last seven games, piling up 23 of their 33 season sacks in that span. It won’t be as simple as that, however.

New Orleans ranks near the bottom of the league in pressure percentage at only 17.8%, good for fifth worst in the NFL. So, when the team can’t get to the quarterback, Allen and his defense will have to find additional ways to frustrate Brady.

Part of that, as we’ve seen year after year and Microsoft tablet after Microsoft tablet, will be making him lose trust in his offensive line. The Buccaneers offensive line has been dealing with a considerable amount of injury all season, and things did not get better in recent weeks.

Tom Brady just chucked another Microsoft Surface tablethttps://t.co/TF0suMLpBM pic.twitter.com/HbEgFKzZ8z

— The Verge (@verge) September 18, 2022

So far, throughout the early day of the practice week, former first-round offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs has not practiced for Tampa after suffering a leg injury in their Week 12 loss to the Cleveland Browns. If the Bucs head into this primetime matchup with multiple backup linemen, that could create opportunity for the Saints to wreak havoc on Brady’s patchwork protection. If he begins to lose confidence in his line, it could lead to rushing his passes and making bad decisions to get the ball out of his hands before the pass rush can get home.

That leads to where the Saints can further make things challenging for the Buccaneers’ offense. If the physical defensive backs of New Orleans can disrupt the timing of the Tampa receivers’ routes, then a rushed Brady could end up making some pivotal mistakes.

Let’s face it, he’s seen everything. So, focusing on fooling the greatest quarterback of all time is sort of futile. However, forcing him to rush his progressions while bumping the pass-catchers off of their routes and pacing is doable. It is a way for the Saints’ defense to impact the game without giving up their defensive identity as a disguise-heavy and competitive unit.

Look for that to take another step if star cornerback Marshon Lattimore makes his return this week. The battles between him an Bucs wideout Mike Evans are the stuff of legend. If New Orleans wants to set a physical approach and then, Lattimore would be the catalyst. If he can’t go, however, the team will not lack intensity with corner Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor.

Will either Mike Evans or Marshon Lattimore record a personal foul when they meet each other this weekend?

Yes: +170
No: -250

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— BetOnline.ag (@betonline_ag) December 1, 2022

New Orleans could shoot from an 8% playoff chance up to as high as 27% with a win and Atlanta Falcon loss this weekend. While the team is not interested in counting games behind and postseason percentages, this could serve as an enormous confidence-building win ahead of a much-needed bye week to rest and get healthier.

In order to be on the positive side of that conversation, harassing Brady, disrupting his options and pummeling his protection are musts.