By The Numbers: Formula to reach the Super Bowl?

As the hours tick down to kickoff of the Saints and Los Angeles Rams inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday, what are the key historic factors in winning a conference championship and reaching the Super Bowl?

Of late, one of the most obvious factors has been the most significant.

Home Field: As you’ve probably heard by now, over the last five years, home teams are 10-0 in conference championship games.

In January 2013, when teams were trying to reach Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, both road teams won – San Francisco at Atlanta  and Baltimore at New England. Since then, home teams – who, of course, are the higher seeds – have dominated.

Since the 12-team playoff format began for the 1990 season, home teams win about two of every three conference title games (37-19).

Good Starts: Only good teams are left at this time of year, and it’s hard to come back against a good team, so how you start is important.

Since 2000, teams are 14-4 when leading by at least a touchdown after the first quarter. Coincidentally, all four comebacks occurred in NFC Championship games, including the Saints over the Minnesota Vikings in January 2010.

Steal a Score: Since 2006, there have been five return touchdowns in conference championship games – four interceptions and a fumble. All five teams went on to win.

Going back to 1980, when one team had a return touchdown and the other did not in a conference title game, the team with a return TD is 17-2.

Turnovers and Takeaways: All you have to do is look at the Saints’ two trips to the NFC Championship to figure out how important turnover margin can be.

In January 2007, the Saints were a minus-4 at Chicago and lost. Three years later, the Saints were a plus-4 against Minnesota and won.

Since the 1990 season, six of the 56 title games finished with a zero turnover margin. Of the other 50 games, the  team winning the turnover battle is an astounding 43-7 – although four of the losses have occurred since January 2011.

The easiest way to stay out of the negative turnover margin category is simply not to commit a turnover. Since 1990, teams that play turnover-free in conference title games are 21-3.

Clean and Accurate: While much has been made of the running back matchup heading into Sunday’s game in the Dome, the passing game can be a determining factor in reaching the Super Bowl.

Since 1992, teams that complete at least 70 percent  of their passes and do not throw an interception are 11-0 in conference championship games. Perhaps not surprisingly, eight of the 11 were playing at home.

Along those same lines, teams with a  passer rating of at least 100 are 24-2 in that same span. In the history of the NFL, Tom Brady (127 games) and Drew Brees (126) rank 1-2 in games with a passer rating above 100.

Century Mark: If Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara can get rolling on the ground Sunday, it’s a good sign. Since 1990, teams with a running back who gains at least 100 yards rushing in a conference title game are 16-3.

Interestingly, one of the three losses was Adrian Peterson against the Saints in January 2010.

Research courtesy the database website Pro Football Reference.